Monday, August 8, 2016

Renewal Odds 8/8/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint', 'Idiotest', 'Winsanity'

Hellevator: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 100% (flat)

Why 100% chance of renewal? Season 2 of Hellevator premieres in October (was renewed in March).

Skin Wars: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 90% (flat)

Why a 90% chance of renewal? It is simply the waiting game. GSN has recently stated it is their most-watched series ever. There is no reason for GSN not to renew Skin Wars. The question just is: When?

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 85% (down 5% from last week)

The numbers: In all eight episodes, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint averaged 408,000 total viewers and 126,000 18-49 viewers. If you split the season in half, the first four episodes (June 15-July 6) averaged 481,000 total viewers and 160,000 18-49 viewers and the last four episodes (July 13-August 3) averaged 335,000 total viewers and 92,000 18-49 viewers. The finale last Wednesday hit a series low.

Why an 85% chance of renewal? The entire season average is great. Skin Wars: Fresh Paint just has the issue with the first half versus second half of the season, as calculated above with a great decline. The median viewer age for the entire eight episodes is about 57, which should pivot any GSN original towards renewal or any show airing on the network more airtime. The final episode's median age last Wednesday was about 68 years old. Come this week and future weeks, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint has multiple rerun slots per week remaining, which is good news for the show's future. Overall, looking at how satisfied GSN was with Skin Wars: Fresh Paint ratings in June but with a little disappointment in July and August, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint should be back. 

Idiotest: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 75% (up 5% from last week)

The numbers: In 35 episodes, Idiotest Season 3 has averaged 352,000 total viewers and 106,000 18-49 viewers. This average is "borderline renewable" for recent GSN standards.

Why a 75% chance of renewal? Idiotest numbers have improved greatly the past three weeks. On top of hitting two season highs in total viewers three weeks ago, Idiotest hit two season highs in 18-49 viewers last week. GSN recently added six more slots of Idiotest reruns to the schedule, which is a very positive sign for renewal.

Winsanity: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 35% (down 5% from last week)

The numbers: In 18 episodes, Winsanity has averaged 339,000 total viewers and 96,000 18-49 viewers. The approximate median viewer age for Winsanity thus far is 61 years old.

Why a 35% chance of renewal? The 18-49's have been horrible for Winsanity. A new episode of Winsanity has not cracked over 75,000 18-49 viewers since July 7th (in the past four weeks). "Renewable" for GSN's originals (or to keep a show on the schedule) is when a show cracks over 100,000 18-49 viewers consistently. More unfortunate news for Winsanity is last week, both episodes skewed old (approx. median viewer age around 70) and lost half the viewers from lead-in Family Feud.

Winsanity is pivoting farther away from renewal each week. Keep in mind, the 40 episodes Chain Reaction averaged 98,000 18-49 viewers (very similar to Winsanity) and was not renewed.

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