Monday, August 1, 2016

Renewal odds 8/1/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint', 'Idiotest', 'Winsanity'

Hellevator: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 100% (flat)

Why a 100% chance of renewal? Hellevator was renewed in March; the second season premieres in October.

Skin Wars: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 90% (flat)

Why a 90% chance of renewal? Skin Wars renewal is likely. At this point it is the "waiting game" for renewal. GSN gave The Chase (canceled), Chain Reaction (canceled) and Hellevator (limited renewal) this type of treatment. That is, waiting long until after their finales to make a decision publicly. Skin Wars is getting the same treatment now (finale was June 29th).

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 90% (down 5% from last week)

The numbers: In seven episodes, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint has averaged 429,000 total viewers and 136,000 18-49 viewers. Last week's Skin Wars: Fresh Paint dipped to a series low in 18-49 and total viewers.

Why an 85% chance of renewal? The current eight-episode stretch got off to a hot start but has fallen the past three weeks to numbers below the GSN primetime average. Additionally, last week, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint took a massive nosedive from lead-in Family Feud, losing nearly half of all viewers and 35% of 18-49 viewers. Still, looking at the seven-episode average in the prior paragraph, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint will be on track for a full second season. It is just the truth that the episodes lately have not performed well. It would be in best interest to pair Skin Wars and Skin Wars: Fresh Paint together in the future.

Iditoest: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 70% (up 5% from last week)

The numbers: In 33 episodes, Idiotest has averaged 346,000 total viewers and 103,000 18-49 viewers.

Why a 70% chance of renewal? The question is "What else does GSN really have?" Seriously. Winsanity is definitely underperforming while GSN's other three current originals, Skin Wars, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint and Hellevator, have no rerun use. While Hellevator and Window Warriors are coming this Fall, no other shows are prepared or renewed for 2017 yet. Idiotest has performed well the past two weeks, rose 7% in 18-49 viewers from lead-in Family Feud last week (but falling 21% in total viewers then fell in both 18-49 and total viewers to the 10:30pm episode) and has an average median viewer age of mid-to-late 50's: Something GSN would be happy to keep. Just like for the renewal the last time around, it appears Idiotest could see one more season just based on GSN's weak development slate.

Winsanity: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 40% (down 5% from last week)

The numbers: In 16 episodes, Winsanity has averaged 339,000 total viewers and 100,000 18-49 viewers. This is a figure that is below what GSN wants in total viewers and well below what GSN wants in 18-49 viewers for a new run original. The viewer age is approximately mid-to-upper 50's, the same as Idiotest. The past four weeks (the second half of the episodes that have aired thus far) have averaged 306,000 total viewers and 84,000 18-49 viewers. This figure is bad news for GSN in both 18-49 and total viewers, with a median age over 60.

Why a 40% chance of renewal? Simply, Winsanity is on a decline and has weak averages, particularly the past three weeks. From lead-in Family Feud this past week, Winsanity lost 2 out of 5 viewers and 1 out of 3 18-49 viewers. From the first to second new episode of Winsanity, there was a 20% drop in total viewers and 11% in 18-49 viewers. These drops are not good for the future of Winsanity.


  1. According to Programming Insider, ABC dominated again with the game show block. Here were the overnights from half hour to half hour.

    8:00: CFF- 4.8
    8:30: CFF- 5.2
    9:00: Pyramid: 4.5
    9:30: Pyramid: 4.5
    10:00: Match Game: 3.8
    10:30: Match Game: 3.3

    Match Game had a dropoff, but it airs late. I saw that the three shows will be in reruns next week. I guess it's due to the Olympics and the fact there is a NFL game that same night on ESPN. All three will return on August 14th.

    1. Celebrity Family Feud topped The $100,000 Pyramid it appears from your numbers. The $100,000 Pyramid was #1 the first few weeks. I wonder what happened-but this is what is suppose to happen. Family Feud is the hotter franchise.

      The Match Game drop off is a concern. Big drop off from 9:30pm to 10pm and again to 10:30pm.

    2. It's good that Pyramid was steady through the hour. I think the celebrities could turn off viewers as well. 2 of the celebs on last night's Match Game was on last week. Maybe they don't like seeing them again.

    3. "2 of the celebs on last night's Match Game was on last week. Maybe they don't like seeing them again."

      Adam, I do not believe that is the problem with the Match Game fall-off. I think it is the later timeslot and the show itself.

    4. You're right. If Match Game gets renewed, which seems likely, give it a earlier timeslot of something like 9 pm. 8 pm wouldn't work because the show is not really suited for family viewing.

      Despite the dropoff, it still won its timeslot in the demo and viewers, so ABC has be happy with that, but probably not with the dropoff.

      I did some averaging for Celeb Feud's ratings through the first 5 episodes of this season. So far, the show has had an average of roughly 7.4 million. That's solid for summertime and I think is the second most watched show this summer behind AGT.

      Also, Sunday's episode was the first to not have a FM win in the first game. Then again, it was the Bachelor/Bachelorette part, so no surprise.

  2. MG is on 9CT so I doubt the timeslot is the ONLY problem