Monday, July 25, 2016

Renewal odds 7/25/16: 'Hellevator' (flat), 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint' (flat), 'Skin Wars' (down), 'Idiotest' (up), 'Winsanity' (down)

Hellevator: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 100% (flat from last week)

Why 100% chance of renewal?: Hellevator was renewed for a four-episode second season in March, which will premiere in October.

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 95% (flat from last week)

The numbers: The six episodes of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint thus far have averaged 446,000 total viewers and 143,000 18-49 viewers.

Why a 95% chance of renewal?: Despite the median viewer age of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint this past week at about 61 years of age (older than GSN would prefer), the entire series so far has a median viewer age at about 53 (what GSN wants). More good news from last week, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint ticked up in 18-49 and total viewers from the series lows the prior week (July 13th). Despite continued drops (and big drops too) from lead-in Family Feud each week, GSN should still be at least "moderately satisfied" with Skin Wars: Fresh Paint numbers.

Skin Wars: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 90% (down 9% from last week)

Why a 90% chance of renewal?: Although casting for the fourth season of Skin Wars circulated at the end of the last calendar year, there is still no official effort from GSN to renew. It has been nearly one month since the finale (June 29th). I have little concern that GSN will end Skin Wars after three seasons, but this is the same type of "no news" or "no word" that GSN gave The Chase (cancelled), Chain Reaction (cancelled) and Hellevator (limited renewal) for weeks and months after their finale.

Idiotest: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 65% (up 5% from last week)

The numbers: The thirty one episodes of Idiotest that have aired thus far this season have averaged 343,000 total viewers and 103,000 18-49 viewers. Last week, Idiotest hit season highs in total viewers (both episodes) and the highest rated episodes since last June.

Why a 65% chance of renewal?: The latest, good numbers from last week should have a big influence, especially since we are nearing the end of the season. Last week's episodes, while skewing above GSN's liking (about 65 and 63), but 5 and 7 years younger than lead-in Family Feud.

Winsanity: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 45% (down 10% from last week)

The numbers: In fourteen episodes thus far, Winsanity has averaged 345,000 total viewers and 104,000 18-49 viewers. This is extremely similar to the current Idiotest season average.

Why a 45% chance of renewal?: Median viewer age is everywhere. Take a look:

June 9th (premiere): 66 and 65
June 16th: 50 and 50
June 23rd: 56 and 66
June 30th: 47 and 42
July 7th: 48 and 47
July 14th: 68 and 67
July 21st: 66 and 62

There are three out of seven weeks (June 16th, 30th and July 7th) where Winsanity makes the "cut" for the median age GSN would prefer. The other four weeks are much too old for GSN's liking. Winsanity is still definitely on the bubble, but it is troubling when the past two weeks of new episodes have not cracked above 341,000 total viewers or above 75,000 18-49 viewers. That last statistic is horrible.

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