Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Renewal odds 7/18/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint', 'Idiotest', 'Winsanity'

The prior renewal odds

Hellevator: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 100% (flat from three weeks ago)

Why 100% chance of renewal?: Already renewed in March; premieres in October

Skin Wars: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 99% (flat from three weeks ago)

The numbers: The entire third season of Skin Wars averaged 515,000 total viewers and 174,000 18-49 viewers. This is a 10% decrease in total viewers and a 17% decrease in 18-49 viewers from the Season 2 average.

Why 99% chance of renewal?: The good news is that the median viewer age for Skin Wars is still very young, at or around 52 years of age, where most GSN reruns of Steve Harvey-hosted Family Feud do not skew that young. GSN's median viewer age is 58, where Skin Wars will continue to bring that down. A renewal should be easy for Skin Wars along with the successful Skin Wars: Fresh Paint.

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: Chance of renewal for Season 2 is 95% (up 15% from three weeks ago)

The numbers: In five weeks on the air so far (June 15-July 13), Skin Wars: Fresh Paint has averaged 456,000 total viewers and 148,000 18-49 viewers.

Why 95% chance of renewal?: Even with declining numbers each week, any show that has well over 100,000 18-49 viewers, like Skin Wars: Fresh Paint, should be very safe for renewal at GSN. No episode (yet) of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint has dipped below 100,000 18-49 viewers (but came close last week at 101K 18-49). Each episode of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint has declined each week in total viewers since premiere and a downward trend in 18-49's (dropped the past three out of four weeks). Skin Wars: Fresh Paint comes with a very successful (for GSN) median viewer age at around 53. With how GSN was very enthusiastic about Skin Wars: Fresh Paint numbers twice (at premiere and the end of June), I see no reason for no Fresh Paint renewal.

Idiotest: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 60% (flat from three weeks ago)

The numbers: The third season of Idiotest thus far (29 episodes in 14 weeks) has averaged 334,000 total viewers and 102,000 18-49 viewers. In the past three weeks, Idiotest has averaged 343,000 total viewers and 106,000 18-49 viewers.

Why 60% chance of renewal?: With the past three weeks' average, Idiotest is stable/a little up from the rest of the season. Idiotest is not on a general decline week to week like Skin Wars: Fresh Paint, but just down year-to-year. With Winsanity not faring too hot and Skin Wars: Fresh Paint not blowing off the numbers like it did at premiere, Idiotest might get one more shot at renewal to fill GSN's bleak development slate.

Winsanity: Chance of renewal for Season 4 is 55% (up 10% from three weeks ago)

The numbers: The six weeks of Winsanity thus far (June 9-July 14) have averaged 355,000 total viewers and 110,000 18-49 viewers.

Why a 55% chance of renewal?: While Winsanity has been a little bit of a ratings disappointment, it is still on GSN's social media banners through FaceBook and Twitter. The great news for Winsanity is four episodes (June 30th and July 7th) had a median viewer age under 50, which is fantastic for GSN. Unfortunately for Winsanity, a very rough performance in the latest numbers last Thursday with series lows in 18-49 viewers, total viewers and skewed old (approx. 68 and 67 years old).

Winsanity could easily get the Hellevator treatment: If Winsanity can skew as young as it did on June 30th and July 7thWinsanity could get brought back for a reduced second season with needed format changes.

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