Monday, June 6, 2016

Renewal odds 6/6/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Winsanity', 'Idiotest'

Hellevator: Already renewed for a second season and currently casting. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 100% (flat)

Skin Wars: Ratings perked up last week (June 1st) to a season high in 18-49 viewers and the highest-rated episode in total viewers since April 27th. With all positive numbers last week, including median viewer age, and the fact that Skin Wars has been unofficially renewed for a fourth season (with months of casting), no worries. The only factor is when will GSN finally officially announce the fourth season? Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 99% (flat)

Winsanity: I think Winsanity has a high chance of success based on several factors:

Number One: GSN has been promoting the hell out of it. Yes, GSN has promoted the hell out of shows like Skin Wars, Steampunk'd and Hellevator in the past year, but those were not actual game shows and disliked by many traditional and non-traditional GSN viewers (especially Hellevator), which will bring me to number two. The fact that GSN is heavily promoting an actual game show-one of their biggest focuses on a traditional game show since American Bible Challenge-I think that will work out for them.

Number Two: Winsanity does not have a "hate" crowd. If it does, it's small.  I have not heard much whining about the existence of Winsanity.

Number Three: Donald Faison. Unlike Mike Catherwood and Brooke Burns, a lot more of the general population actually know who he is from Scrubs. Women especially liked Scrubs and Faison too where GSN attracts more female viewers than male.

Number Four: GSN is hot. The ratings for Family Feud lately have been spectacular in both 18-49 and total viewers, which are numbers that have carried on for hours each night prompting some of GSN's highest primetime and total day averages in network history. There have been a lot more eyeballs on GSN lately through all this Winsanity promotion.

All four of these factors and GSN's continued mass promotion, where looking at their Twitter and Facebook pages, the focus appears to be mostly (if not all) away from Idiotest, Skin Wars and Skin Wars: Fresh Paint and more towards WinsanityChance of renewal (for Season 2): 80%

Idiotest: In the eight weeks/seventeen half-hour episodes aired thus far since the start of the third season on April 12th, Idiotest has averaged 332,000 total viewers and 100,000 18-49 viewers. The median viewer age is mid-50's, about on-par with [the majority of] last season's 53.

Taking last week's numbers alone, Idiotest had a season high in 18-49 viewers, its highest rated week in total viewers since May 3rd (in four weeks) but had a quarter of an audience drop off from Family Feud. There's a mix of good and bad news.

I believe Idiotest has a more positive shot than not for a fourth season by a hair, based on the fact of its young-skewing audience. The series has turbulence and again, I believe the fate of Idiotest depends on the success level of Winsanity which will be tested this week. Big Winsanity success, especially in 18-49's means Idiotest could be in jeopardy. A Winsanity failure or skew much older than GSN wants, then Idiotest could get an instant renewal. Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 55% (flat)

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