Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Renewal odds 6/27/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint', 'Idiotest', 'Winsanity'

Hellevator: Renewed for a second season in March with changes. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 100% (flat)

Skin Wars: After an 'okay' start, Skin Wars has come back. In nine episodes, the third season of Skin Wars has averaged 507,000 total viewers and 173,000 18-49 viewers. Down from last year, but still powerful. The only real downer for Skin Wars last week was when the new episode had a median viewer age of approximately 63. I have never seen it that high for Skin Wars. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 99% (flat)

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: Only two weeks in and a sizable drop off from premiere to week two, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint is likely on its way to renewal with strong 18-49, total viewer and median age figures. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 80% (flat)

Idiotest: Fantastic news for Idiotest is that last week, the show hit a season high in 18-49 and total viewers and up significantly from the prior week (June 14th). The only unfortunate news for last week's Idiotest was its big drop from lead-in Family Feud and a small drop at 10:30pm (second new episode).

This season, with 23 episodes thus far, Idiotest has averaged 331,000 total viewers and 101,000 18-49 viewers. Compared to the first eleven weeks of last season, Idiotest is down this year 12% in total viewers (from 378K total) and down 11% in 18-49 viewers (from 113K 18-49). This is not good year-to-year news for Idiotest, but with Winsanity not performing too hot, Idiotest may have a chance at Season 4.

For the record, unlike Winsanity, Idiotest has retained its rerun slots on the schedule and a couple more will be added once Skin Wars leaves next week. GSN must still like the Idiotest figures overall. Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 60% (up 10% from last week)

Winsanity: Between underperforming numbers (388K total and 110K 18-49), median age above what GSN would prefer (about 60 years old for the average of six new episodes) and now reruns getting pulled and weirdly adjusted, Winsanity does not look long for GSN. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 45% (down 20% from last week)

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