Monday, June 13, 2016

Renewal odds 6/13/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Winsanity', 'Skin Wars: Fresh Paint', 'Idiotest'

Hellevator: Already renewed for a second season (premieres this Fall) and currently casting. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 100% (flat)

Skin Wars: Presumably renewed for a fourth season. Casting has also been underway. Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 99% (flat)

Winsanity: Although last week's premiere ratings are not available in full yet, they come with slightly more negative than positive news. The total viewer presence was strong, with 507,000 total viewers for the first new run, but that is about all the good news.

The bad news for Winsanity was the drop off from Family Feud in total viewers (-29%) and the viewer rejection in to the 9:30pm episode (-18%). More than a quarter of Family Feud viewers did not stick around for the Winsanity premiere and one out of five who did watch the premiere tuned out for the second Winsanity new run.

The worse news comes with the 18-49's, which were only a 0.10 (9pm) and 0.08 (9:30pm) with a median age likely in the  mid-60's. An 18-49 drop-off of about 25% from premiere to second new episode (to be exactly confirmed when full ratings are available), hence the rejection theory again.

We need to see a lot more before we can safely call renewal or not for Winsanity, given that last week's ratings are only 5% of the entire series. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 70% (down 10% from last week)

Skin Wars: Fresh Paint: The special last August did very well with 456,000 total viewers and 157,000 18-49 viewers, which I called "impressive". If numbers for the eight upcoming episodes of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint have anything like that, Season 2 will be on the way soon.

I simply do not see that happening with the upcoming eight episodes. First, last August, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint was given a Family Feud lead-in, a lead-in which will very likely be stronger than this Wednesday's Skin Wars. Second, Skin Wars has come in weaker this year and there is less interest in the franchise, hence a weaker lead-in and a weaker Skin Wars: Fresh Paint.

I do give Skin Wars: Fresh Paint a shot at renewal given the series will likely pick up a good deal of 18-49 viewers. In contrast, I see weaker numbers over the entire season run then what we saw last August. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 55%

Idiotest: Well, Winsanity did not blow the doors off or fail big time. The Winsanity effect for Idiotest has no effect, for now.

Last week's (June 7th) numbers were okay. Just okay. Soft in total viewers, decent in 18-49's, good in median age and percentage of viewers under 50 years of age.

The nineteen episodes this season so far have averaged 327,000 total viewers and 100,000 18-49 viewers, a figure that is definitely a little weak. Compared to the first nine weeks of Season 2, this season is down 14% in total viewers (from 379K) and down 12% in total viewers (from 113K). That news is not too positive.

We are at the halfway point of the third season of Idiotest. The next couple of months will be important for the future of the series. Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 55% (flat)

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