Monday, May 16, 2016

Renewal odds 5/16/16: 'Hellevator', 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest'

Hellevator: Season 2 is currently casting and premieres this Fall. Apparently, teams of four instead of three this time around. Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 100% (flat)

Skin Wars: No worries for Season 4. We already know about that. However, I will analyze Skin Wars ratings anyway.

The first four episodes of Season 3 (April 20-May 11) have averaged 473,000 total viewers and 172,000 18-49 viewers. This figure is down 25% in total viewers from the first four episodes of Season 2 (630,000 total viewer average over first four episodes in 2015), down 29% in total viewers from the first four episodes of Season 1 (667,000 total viewer average over first four episodes in 2014) and down 25% in 18-49 viewers from the first four episodes of Season 2 (230,000 18-49 viewers from the first four episodes in 2015).

From those figures, Skin Wars has lost exactly a quarter of its audience from the prior season. Skin Wars still holds on strong in total viewers and extremely positive in 18-49 viewers for GSN standards. The median age for the four episodes of Skin Wars this season has been very young at 53, 52, 43 and 44 years of age the past four episodes.

In other words, Skin Wars is still a shinning star in GSN's ratings book, but it has lost its spectacular spark from its first season. The lead-in to Skin Wars, a rerun of itself, definitely hurts the show. 

For the time, Season 4 of Skin Wars is definitely coming. Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 99% (flat)

Idiotest: For the four Tuesday night episodes of Idiotest (April 12-May 3), Idiotest has averaged 341,000 total viewers and 100,000 18-49 viewers. The average median viewer age for all eight of these episodes is approximately 57, a number younger than most of the GSN lineup but not quite as low as Skin Wars and Hellevator. This is still the upside to Idiotest, since a median viewer age of 57 for any show on GSN is young-enough for execs to happily accept. Also, week after week, Idiotest skews younger than lead-in Family Feud.

The unfortunate part for Idiotest that may or may not cost the show a fourth season is the drop off from lead-in Family Feud. On May 3rd, Idiotest dropped 29% in total viewers and dropped 25% in 18-49 viewers from Feud. On April 26th, Idiotest dropped 37% in total viewers and dropped 1% in 18-49 viewers from Feud. On April 19th, Idiotest dropped 28% in total viewers but rose 7% in 18-49 viewers from Feud. The good piece of news here is that Idiotest does skew younger than Family Feud.

Compared to the first four weeks of Idiotest Season 2 (April 2015), this season of Idiotest is down 5% in total viewers and down 17% in 18-49 viewers. Still, more likely than not a renewal for Idiotest (unless Winsanity and Skin Wars: Fresh Paint really take off, but Idiotest could still have life then). Chance of renewal (for Season 4): 65% (up 5% from two weeks ago)


  1. You gave The Chase a 99% chance of renewal and I challenged you on that. You have no credibility in this space.

  2. I think Skin Wars: Fresh Paint will do well because the regular SW does good despite a year to year decline in ratings. Winsanity hopefully does good because it does have that Feud lead out. And like Idiotest, its a true game show. From the spoiler free review on here, it sounds like a lot of fun.

    ABC released a promo for To Tell The Truth premiering June 14th. It must be risque if its airing at 10 pm. It don't look bad, but it'll probably have Harvey Feud like humor.

    BTW, despite being pulled after poor Sunday night ratings, NBC's Hollywood Game Night was renewed for a fifth season. It is a midseason replacement and The Wall from LeBron James will also premiere midseason. At least HGN still has some life.

    1. UGH. I feel like I'm waiting forever for NBC to get out of their "drama-heavy" scheduling attitude. I can't believe they started producing this show back in October 2015, and it might not premiere until April 2017. God, it doesn't take 1.5 years to air a game show that's pretty much already done filming!

      NBC even has the show page listed on their website... ALMOST A YEAR BEFORE THIS PROGRAM AIRS! Same thing with The Apprentice. What is this new attitude now, instead of advertising upcoming shows 2 months in advance, now we're advertising them 2 YEARS in advance!?

      Unbelievable. Clearly it shows where their priorities are... drama, comedy, drama, comedy, drama, comedy... and getting into the Guiness Book of World Records for producing the most shows with the name Chicago in the title.

      "THE WALL — Packed with drama and action, this is a game that the entire family can root for together. Executive producer LeBron James presents a challenge infused with the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat, where regular people can achieve their dreams with one bounce of the ball. Hosted by comedian Chris Hardwick and set in a large glossy arena centering on the colossal 40-foot wall, the gameplay involves quick thinking, shrewd strategy and a little luck. Played by contestant pairs, this is an unpredictable journey with giant swings of fortune and millions of dollars passing through the contestants’ hands throughout the hour. LeBron James, Andrew Glassman, Maverick Carter and Chris Hardwick executive produce. “The Wall” is produced by Glassman Media in association with SpringHill Productions. Glassman Media developed the series with CORE Media."

    2. I actually thought The Wall was going to show up this summer, but I guess it's either winter or spring when it shows up.

      I'm pretty sure NBC renewed I Can Do That for a second season, but I don't see it anywhere. This network is so indecisive with their shows its ridiculous. They tried Best Time With Neil Patrick Harris in the fall which actually did decently in the ratings, but canceled it. But they have time to order another Chicago spinoff. What's next, Chicago Nudists? Chicago Game Night? The Wall looks intense and could be the next big thing, but knowing NBC, they'll probably cancel it.

      Saw something that Match Game is now casting. Speaking of ABC, with 500 Questions returning next week, the third episode will air on Saturday night. Are they out of their minds? Saturdays are a low viewed night for TV and it seems like ABC wants to end it quickly.

    3. The Wall has a top prize of $12 million. Who knows... maybe NBC gave out too much money during whatever limited amount of episodes they filmed (probably 10) and they want to hold off on airing it until they've recovered that money back with their other drama/comedy shows.

      Apparently, Match Game will go from filming to airing within 2 weeks, since the filming dates are about a week or two before the premiere on June 26.

      I also found out that even though we knew 500 Questions was a 5 night event, it will be 2 hours per night, so technically 10 episodes total, which is longer than the 7 episodes of last season. But again, it does seem strange they're rushing to get through all 10 hours over the course of just 1 week, and like you mentioned, selecting Saturday to be one of the 5 nights... reminds me of NBC and MSQ.

    4. I'm assuming ABC is shortening 500 Questions because of the NBA Finals coming soon, or if they want it to get it done ASAP. Originally last year, 500Q was intended to be a nine night event, but for some reason was shortened down to 7 nights. I was surprised the show was renewed because it did skew old. But ABC must of liked the viewer numbers, so they gave it another go round.

      Now I wonder how BattleBots will do on Thursdays. It doesn't have the Celebrity Feud lead out this time out, so hopefully it does well. Something tells me they'll put the robots up against Big Brother, and that normally wins Thursdays in the summer.

      Although the Sunday Big Brother was crushed last year up against Steve and friends.
      It makes me wonder how Feud, Pyramid, and Match Game will do against the Olympics come August. They'll do fine I hope. The Summer Olympics is not that well watched anymore like it was before.

  3. "You gave The Chase a 99% chance of renewal"

    As did everyone! The Chase should have been guaranteed a fifth season given the ratings the show received in 2015. Then came September and as we all know, plans changed at GSN. Skin Wars and Idiotest renewals happened with no thought of The Chase for casting or future episodes. That's when the focus changed.

    Adam: Skin Wars: Fresh Paint and Winsanity look like winners from the actual content of the shows, format and timeslots.

    1. Bull. I'm not the same anonymous as the other guy, but I said repeatedly on here that people can only take so much of a fat ugly guy being a smartass showoff. That gets old really quickly, as you found out. I was right.

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