Monday, January 11, 2016

Renewal odds 1/11/16: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Hellevator', 'Chain Reaction', 'The Chase'

The prior renewal odds

Skin Wars: Season 3 filmed last November; coming in March. Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)

Idiotest: Season 3 filmed last November; coming to the GSN airwaves soon. Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)

Hellevator: Renewal for Hellevator appears to have gained momentum over the past weeks. The Hellevator Twitter account is very active. The Soska Sisters on Twitter still acknowledge their association with GSN. In fact, in a recent Tweet by the Soska Sisters, they said the same about what a story here at GameShowNetworkNews stated about the timing of renewals for GSN shows (Hellevator, Chain Reaction, The Chase) coming out at the upfronts at the latest.

It appears a Hellevator renewal has an edge over Chain Reaction and a huge lead over The Chase among the GSN minds right now. If GSN does renew this, they are going to attempt to recreate the Hellevator ratings from the first two weeks (October 21 & 28) while making appropriate format changes and scheduling shifts. Still, not a sight for a casting call or production moves for any three of these shows sitting on the bubble. Stay tuned, GSNers. Chance of renewal: 50% (up 35% from prior renewal odds)

Chain Reaction: In its four weeks on Friday nights, new runs of Chain Reaction have averaged 473,000 total viewers and 121,000 18-49 viewers. When it comes to those all-important 18-49's, an average 25.6% of all viewers from the past four weeks have been under the age of 50, which means the median age of all Chain Reaction viewers is around 63. Unlike Hellevator, Chain Reaction does not skew younger than AARP members. But also unlike Hellevator, Chain Reaction maintains mostly stable numbers from its Family Feud lead-in. In fact, Chain Reaction has been in-line if not skewing [slightly] younger than surrounding episodes of Family Feud. On December 25th and January 1st, Chain Reaction skewed younger than its Family Feud lead-in.

With total viewer numbers, this past Friday, Chain Reaction achieved its highest rated average in total viewers ever for the back to back new episodes (598K total viewer average from 8-9pm ET). Family Feud in the next hour dipped to 522,000 total viewers (average 9-10pm ET).

Chain Reaction should be renewed based on the fact that it has above average numbers, great rerun value, very cheap to make and is a hit more often that miss in 18-49's. The uptick in Chain Reaction ratings the past three weeks are a move in the right renewable direction. Chance of renewal: 45% (up 10% from last renewal odds)

The Chase: Nothing at all here, besides a whole bunch of nothing. No casting calls with a dead Twitter page. Meanwhile, its Friday night replacement, Chain Reaction, is performing not necessarily better in total viewers but younger (and Chain Reaction is so much cheaper to make). Chance of renewal: 20% (down 15% from prior renewal odds)

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