Monday, December 7, 2015

Renewal odds 12/7/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Chain Reaction', 'The Chase', 'Hellevator'

Skin Wars: Season 3 is coming in January. Season 4 is confirmed to come eventually. The chance of renewal at less than 100% for Skin Wars is not going to be below 100% for about a year to come. Chance of renewal (for Season 3 and 4): 100% (flat)

Idiotest: Season 3 officially coming to the GSN airwaves in January. Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)

Chain Reaction: This stands a shot at renewal more than The Chase. Chain Reaction still has nearly a majority (15 episodes) remaining in its run. GSN will finalize their decision on Chain Reaction after they see the upcoming round of ratings for new episodes and whatever subsequent runs they wish to see. With The Chase skewing older than old, Hellevator fading and not much GSN has up their sleeves, who honestly knows. If Chain Reaction can bring in the younger viewers like we saw at some points over the summer, it stands a shot. Chance of renewal: 40% (up 5% from last week)

The ChaseThe Chase is looking like a goner more and more by the week. It has been 1 year and 4 months since the last time GSN renewed The Chase. In the past four weeks, new episodes of The Chase in its Friday night timeslot have averaged 615,000 total viewers and 120,000 18-49 viewers with a decline each week in both 18-49 and total viewers. Now, those are two great figures minus a decline, but only 19% of the audience for The Chase is under 50 years of age, which means the median viewer age for The Chase is about 70 years old (its most recent episode was closer to 80 with only 12% of the audience under 50 years of age). GSN's end goal is to get younger skewing shows, which is why Skin Wars is renewed for not just one but two more seasons.

The biggest and possibly worst news for The Chase is the fact that lower-rated Hellevator beat The Chase in 18-49's last week. Even more bad news, with news surfacing that GSN is at least considering changing their name to continue the shift away from traditional shows goes against productions like The Chase. Chance of renewal: 35% (down 5% from last week)

Hellevator: In six weeks, Hellevator has averaged 309,000 total viewers and 144,000 18-49 viewers. That does not look awful, I will admit, and stronger than Idiotest lately. The past four weeks of Hellevator (post-Halloween) have averaged 231,000 total viewers and 109,000 18-49 viewers. Last week's numbers were in fact awful. The 8pm new run was an overall series low while the 11pm encore put up one of the worst 18-49 numbers I have seen for an original outside of Lie Detectors and It Takes a Church at 33,000 18-49 viewers.

Not to mention for Hellevator: Two primetime reruns removed, which was effective immediately. GSN cannot be happy there with Hellevator numbers.

The one factor that does not make Hellevator's renewal odds lower: This big piece of publicity. Chance of renewal: 15% (flat)

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