Monday, November 2, 2015

Renewal odds 11/2/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Hellevator', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Skin Wars: Renewed for a ten-episode third season long ago. Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)

Idiotest: Never was I concerned that Idiotest would not get renewed with GSN still actively casting for the series, but I was worried about the ratings up until this past week. Idiotest hit a series high in 18-49 viewers post-Hellevator and also kept a great retention rate from Hellevator (held on to 93% of total viewers and 82% in 18-49 viewers from Hellevator). Besides possibly the order for amount of episodes, I do not see why GSN is waiting so long to send out a press release for the Idiotest renewal when it has obviously been renewed.

Additionally, GSN must like Idiotest rerun numbers. They added two more slots of Idiotest reruns in primetime effective this week on Thursdays. Chance of renewal: 95% (up 10% from last week)

Hellevator: I am not sure if GSN could be much happier with the Hellevator numbers right now. A small chuck of total viewers fell off but were still very healthy. Meanwhile, the 18-49's, which are what GSN is really looking at, rose significantly week to week to even numbers higher than most episodes of Skin Wars could not achieve. Both runs of Hellevator (the 8pm new run and 11pm encore) last Wednesday night had more than half of its audience in the 18-49 demographic, another factor that goes Hellevator's way that is above and beyond the rest of GSN's programming including Skin Wars.

Also take in to account that GSN added more reruns of the Hellevator for last Friday night and Halloween evening, which means GSN must be liking some of Hellevator's rerun numbers.

Last, some top celebrities outside of the GSN family have noticed Hellevator and tweeting about it: Heidi Klum and Jenny McCarthy. That's a huge boost (and free publicity) right there for the series. Chance of renewal: 75% (up 10% from last week)

The Chase: Still no word on a fifth season, which is not good. New episodes of The Chase resume this Friday night at 8pm ET. We'll see from there on out with ratings (particularly 18-49's) if GSN wishes to renew the series.

One negative against The Chase is that Hellevator's runaway success with the younger demos is not a positive sign. Last week's Hellevator delivered about twice of what The Chase brings in for 18-49's and three times the GSN 18-49 primetime average. The more GSN has success with newer originals means the older, traditional stuff is going to be axed. Chance of renewal: 50% (down 5% from last week)

Chain Reaction: A big negative for Chain Reaction is that GSN has pulled yet another rerun for the current Catherwood version (despite very positive rerun numbers the prior week). In majority, Catherwood Chain Reaction must not be rerunning well. This means all Catherwood runs of Chain Reaction have been reduced to second and third-rate slots including Thursday afternoons, Saturday afternoons and Thursday, Saturday and Sunday latenight. Chance of renewal: 35% (down 5% from last week)

Steampunk'd: Although it is probably cancelled and GSN never flat-out cancels their shows, there is still no word of any type if GSN has officially ended production on Steampunk'd. 18-49's were good for the series and as of a couple weeks ago, GSN was looking into Steampunk'd for possible renewal or a future special. Honestly, if GSN just remodeled Steampunk'd (brighter format, different permanent judges) and aired it as a Skin Wars lead-out, it would do fine. Chance of renewal: 5% (down 5% from last week)


  1. On Showbuzz's Top 100 Friday cable originals, Hellevator was number 90. 187k and 0.08 in the demo.

    1. Thanks for pointing that out. That's a bad total viewer number for primetime but solid in comparison for 18-49's (that would be around 100K). Still not a winner overall for that run due to how much it weighed down the primetime average.

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  3. GSN should cancel Hellevator after one season, because it's really really scary! I'll never watch it again. Why can't we have some old game shows revived? And why can't we have some new game shows based on the international game shows from around the world here in the U.S.? GSN should really renew The Chase for a fifth season. If not, another network will.

  4. "GSN should really renew The Chase for a fifth season. If not, another network will."

    You're completely right, David. One of the big networks, such as NBC, FOX, CBS or ABC would definitely pick up The Chase with its success on GSN. All four of those networks have a lot of space to fill in their schedules (that they cannot easily fill with Family Feud reruns ;) ) and will gladly take something unscripted like The Chase.