Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Delayed renewal odds 11/9/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Hellevator', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Renewal odds will now be published either late Monday night or Tuesday due to Friday night's The Chase ratings normally not available until Monday evening.

Skin Wars: Officially renewed for a third season. Skin Wars Season 3 has been filming this week and last week (Tweet 1 and Tweet 2). Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)

Idiotest: Unofficially renewed for a third season, but now all more the obvious with the filming of many episodes this week. Chance of renewal: 95% (flat)

Hellevator: The third week of Hellevator showed mixed results. Last week's episode drew below average primetime numbers but a very young-skewing audience (57.6% of the Hellevator audience was younger than 50 years old). While GSN's average primetime audience skews around 65 years old (with 20% of the audience under 50 years old on average), we can assume the median age for all three episodes of Hellevator thus far has been much younger at around 40. 

I am questioning how thrilled GSN is with Hellevator. Last week, they added a Hellevator rerun post-primetime on Friday but then gave Hellevator a very low-rate Thanksgiving weekend marathon (Saturday latenight 12am-3am ET). If Hellevator can sustain numbers for the rest of the season around what it had last week (with a boost in total viewers if anything), it's renewed. Chance of renewal: 75% (flat)

The Chase: The Chase returned last week with its third highest rated episode of this season (out of 16 thus far). Casting is at a standstill but at least it is still listed on GSN's website. Overall, the performance of The Chase has outdone everything except Skin Wars when it comes to factoring both 18-49 and total viewer numbers. However, Skin Wars, Idiotest, Steampunk'd and Hellevator all skew much younger.

It has been 1 year and 3 months since a renewal for The Chase. Even with the recent very strong ratings, I do not see GSN renewing The Chase right now. It will take stronger, younger-skewing ratings from The Chase and a collapse of Hellevator. Just like with Hellevator, the next few weeks will be interesting with The Chase. Chance of renewal: 50% (flat)

Chain Reaction: The only news that can be reported about Chain Reaction is that new episodes are coming Friday, December 18th at 8pm ET. Chain Reaction will probably get strong numbers there, but I see life for Chain Reaction elsewhere besides GSN. Like The Chase, GSN has just lost interest with Chain ReactionChance of renewal: 35% (flat)

Steampunk'd: Cancelled. 

Renewal odds history for Steampunk'd: 5% (11/2), 10% (10/26), 35% (10/19), 25% (10/12), 25% (10/5), 15% (9/28), 15% (9/21), 15% (9/14), 15% (9/7), 45% (8/31), 35% (8/24), 35% (8/17).

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