Monday, October 5, 2015

Renewal odds 10/5/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Skin Wars

Already renewed for a ten-episode third season.

Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)


Casting for a third season through GSN directly. What more do you want?

Chance of renewal: 95% (flat)

The Chase

We really do not know what is going on here, but it's definitely not dead yet. Its twitter account has not been in activity for a month now, but The Chase has still kept both its primetime slots on the schedule. It cannot be losing that much of GSN's interest. It's just older skewing that about every other GSN original right now.

Chance of renewal: 60% (flat)

Chain Reaction

In twenty four episodes, Chain Reaction has averaged 414,000 total viewers and 87,000 18-49 viewers. Compare that to the GSN third quarter primetime average of 434,000 total viewers, then Chain Reaction is not too far off. With those numbers, Chain Reaction is renewable. But, most of those numbers are from the summer while Chain Reaction has cooled off in the past five weeks without an episode above 400,000 total viewers or above 90,000 18-49 viewers.

Additionally, GSN is giving Chain Reaction a hiatus. This is most likely a sign that GSN has noticed the numbers heading south for Chain Reaction and giving Catherwood's new version approximately a two months rest.

Below's renewal odds for Chain Reaction are for GSN purposes only. There have been syndication talks for Chain Reaction for the 2016-17 season. Stay tuned.

Chance of renewal: 45% (down 5% from last week)


This gets very interesting, GSNers.

In six weeks, Steampunk'd has averaged 275,000 total viewers and 116,000 18-49 viewers. Not good in the total number but pretty good in 18-49's. There's more to it: Unlike Chain Reaction, Steampunk'd has been on an upward trend the past few weeks. Steampunk'd hit rock bottom on September 2nd, which caused GSN to swiftly move timeslots for Steampunk'd. Even since Steampunk'd moved to 8pm on Wednesdays (from the former 9pm), Steampunk'd has been on an upward trend in total viewers (barely) and more-so 18-49 viewers. Take a look at the Steampunk'd numbers since the beginning:

August 19th (premiere): 383K/198K
August 26th: 313K/149K
September 2nd: 173K/64K
September 9th: 256K/70K
September 16th (rerun): 184K/58K
September 23rd: 255K/78K
September 30th: 270K/139K

I'm not saying Steampunk'd is going to get a full eight hour-long episode second season, because it still will not. With the numbers above, Steampunk'd has dropped noticeably from either its Skin Wars or Family Feud lead-in (only dropped a little on September 2nd when its lead-in was a Steampunk'd rerun).

In conclusion, I think there is a very good chance, just because of its young-skewing audience, Steampunk'd will be back for a special or mini-series in 2016. You know, knowing GSN's weak development slate.

Chance of renewal for a full second season: 25% (up 10% from last week)
Chance of limited run Steampunk'd special in 2016: 80% (up 20% from last week)


  1. If Steampunkd returned as a limited event, how many episodes will it have?

    1. 1 to 2 I would assume. Some format like what Skin Wars Fresh Paint started with.

    2. With a weak development slate right now, Steampunkd would be good as a special one or two week event in the next year. Thinking about The Chase, if it does not get a fifth season, I would be extremely disappointed. It should get renewed, but the 18-49s are really skewing on the old side. I don't know if GSN likes old skewing shows. If it did get canceled, it would be like The American Bible Challenge. Its third season had average numbers, but didn't return for a fourth year. I think GSN was disappointed with the numbers the third season had, seeing how they were expecting the premiere to get over 1 million viewers and episodes after that to get over 600,000 viewers. I still wonder if Bible Challenge was old skewing. Anyways, if Chase somehow gets canned, it would probably be because of the 18-49s.

    3. Oh yes, American Bible Challenge was old skewing.

      The Chase has much more than average total viewer numbers, by the way. The Chase has risen season to season.

  2. I think The Chase can hit a million, it might be a long while though.

    1. "I think The Chase can hit a million, it might be a long while though."

      Well, no. I don't believe that anymore. At one time I did when The Chase was actually GSN's priority. But not anymore, now that it's off to the side, GSN is producing episodes less often and the big breaks between new runs.