Monday, October 19, 2015

Renewal odds 10/19/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'The Chase', 'Hellevator', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Last week's renewal odds

Skin Wars

Season 3 coming in late spring/early summer 2016.

Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)


Currently casting for a third season (and advertised on-air too)

Chance of renewal: 95% (flat)

The Chase

GSN still cares. Not as much as they do with Hellevator and Skin Wars at the moment, but they do. GSN has been promoting new episodes of The Chase consistently and it is still over two weeks away. While The Chase twitter account has not been active since the beginning of September, when the last round of new episodes ended, the banner has been updated for new episodes November 6th (and on Facebook too). The Chase is not alone with inactivity on social media-Chain Reaction has been blank since October 1st (its last new episode) and even though it has only been a few days, the Steampunk'd twitter has been blank too since last Wednesday's finale.

Chance of renewal: 60% (flat)


This "horror game show" is something "completely different" in the way of GSN prior successes American Bible Challenge, The Chase and Skin Wars. However, word about Hellevator has been bad not just from traditional GSN viewers, but internet users in general. One of the most recent bad reviews just came in today. The current advertisements scare off the viewing audience for including too much screaming and horror. Most mute the television when Hellevator ads come on. I think the horror appeal and Soska sisters' following will give Hellevator respectable numbers at the start. Hellevator has also received media attraction more than any other show on GSN recently. Overall, the Hellevator premiere numbers may look promising but will fizzle out in later episodes.

Honestly, the percentage I give Hellevator below is higher than I think it actually is. If GSN had a few other successful shows right now, then Hellevator would be down to 35%. It is just the fact that GSN's development slate is, sorry to be repetitive, so weak, that they'll almost renew anything. Speaking of almost renewing anything, poor-performer but young-skewing Steampunk'd is "up in the air" for renewal. Hellevator may just be another poor-performer but young-skewing.

Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 50%

Chain Reaction

Little activity here over the past week. Overall, not promising, but we will see how Hellevator folds out and what GSN does with The Chase and Steampunk'd. Plus, Chain Reaction could go into syndication.

Chance of renewal (for GSN only): 40% (flat)


In its eight episode debut season, Steampunk'd averaged 278,000 total viewers and 114,000 18-49 viewers. In comparison, the eight episode run this past summer of The Chase averaged 638,000 total viewers and 135,000 18-49 viewers. In other words, Steampunk'd is a young-skewing GSN show, but that does not mean it was a full success.

Since its lowest rated episode on September 2nd, Steampunk'd has had a general upward trend in both 18-49 and total viewers. Last week's finale drew the highest total viewer showing since August and an impressive (and up from last week) 18-49 showing. Rising ratings, even when they are still below the GSN average, are promising.

Only because GSN has a weak development slate, I think Steampunk'd could very well be back in some capacity next year. Once again, Steampunk'd is another GSN original that is dependent on other GSN originals. If Hellevator bombs, Steampunk'd could be back.

Chance of renewal (for an entire second season): 35% (up 10% from last week)
Chance of mini-series/special in 2016: 80% (flat)

1 comment:

  1. The only problem I might have with Hellevator is the promos. I'm sure there has been new ones, but I am sick to death of the screaming ones. We get it, they are in danger but don't show it like 100 times a day. I can see why even horror buffs dislike the show. Maybe they think it is just flat out silly or it is just dumb. I still believe The Chase will do well on Fridays. Because it has done well on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Why would it be different?

    OK, let's say if Hellevator, Chain Reaction, The Chase, and Steampunkd don't get renewed for additional seasons, GSN then would have to figure out what to do with their lineup. They will more likely have to acquire some new shows instead of just placing Harvey Feud. If this happened, the shows acquired might be Hollywood Game Night or Celebrity Name Game. I would like to see 5th Grader back on the schedule since they took it off for absolutely no reason. Heck, even the 2015 version would freshen the schedule a bit.

    BTW, with old GSN shows slowly getting a second life, it wouldn't surprise me if shows like Catch 21 or The American Bible Challenge return in a few years. Bible Challenge would be good seeing how the revival of 5th Grader bombed for FOX.