Monday, September 28, 2015

Renewal odds 9/28/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Last week's renewal odds

Before looking at the post below and trying to make your own predictions, two major events pertaining to GSN's original programming occurred last week outside of just ratings. Man Versus Fly was completely pulled from the schedule (while there was still many 3-minute shorts yet to be seen and GSN want(ed) Man Versus Fly to be a series of their own someday) and what originally started as a special, Skin Wars: Fresh Paint was green-lit for an entire season-long 8-episode order.

Skin Wars

Skin Wars has a ten-episode third season for next year. We'll see how Skin Wars: Fresh Paint goes.

Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)


The show is casting and ratings last week were strong, growing from lead-in Family Feud and then episode to episode. Obviously, from the casting alone (as well as a very weak Steampunk'd, risky Hellevator and weak development slate elsewhere), we are just waiting for a press release from GSN on the third season for Idiotest and when it will come along.

Chance of renewal: 95% (flat)

The Chase

Another week, no happenings with The Chase which is not a positive sign. A really negative sign for GSN's interest in The Chase is the fact that there has been zero activity from The Chase Twitter account in over three weeks (since the last new episode). Meanwhile, the already renewed Skin Wars account is active regularly (the last new episode of Skin Wars aired in August).

I still do not believe it's complete doom and gloom for The Chase. The show is just expense with cash winnings and that can easily be fixed. Otherwise, The Chase is a consistently good performer in new runs and reruns remain strong on a regular basis. Despite my positive review for Hellevator, I am having my doubts about the actual outcome for Hellevator's performance between the negative responses of those who regularly watch GSN just from the advertisements and what I believe is the incorrect timeslot for Hellevator.

The reason Hellevator comes up is because there is a relationship between Hellevator's success and renewal for The Chase. Hellevator success=No more The Chase. Hellevator fail=Better chance of The Chase and/or Chain Reaction brought back.

Chance of renewal: 60% (down 20% from last week)

Chain Reaction

The numbers were just flat out bad for Chain Reaction last week, tying a low in total viewers and hitting two lows in 18-49 viewers. The 18-49 figures for Chain Reaction last Thursday looked like they were from Lie Detectors or the second season of It Takes a Church. Plus a lot of times, Chain Reaction rises from The Chase (new run or rerun) in 18-49's. That did not happened last week.

Last week was not just a bad week for Chain Reaction. It was actually an awful week. Two factors that do work for Chain Reaction renewal: One, More weeks have been better than worse for Chain Reaction and two, weak development slate.

Chance of renewal: 50% (down 10% from last week)


Steampunk'd is also doing pretty badly but at least it's younger-skewing than Chain Reaction. I'm not saying at all that Steampunk'd will be back for a second season, especially after now averaging 276,000 total viewers and 112,000 18-49 viewers. The total viewer number is awful for recent GSN primetime standards while the 18-49 number is above average.

So while Steampunk'd is not probable to be back for a full second season, I wouldn't write Steampunk'd off forever. I think one Steampunk'd special could do well after a new episode of Skin Wars next summer. I would not know where to start with the formality of the special, but something along the lines of Skin Wars: Fresh Paint.

Chance of renewal for a full second season: 15% (flat)
Chance of limited run Steampunk'd special in 2016: 60%


  1. OK this is 100% off topic, but I wanted a place to post my feelings. This is regarding the game show forum that has been around forever. I know Casey's feelings toward it's current group of characters. I quit posting at GS forum for what I want to mention. I still read their page and last night I saw a comment mentioning TPiR was added to Canada's Game TV. He did this as a service. Virtually every comment after told him he was either a troll or wasting their time. He's not a regular so he 'got no love' from the group. How can they run a site and allow this? It's similar to what happened to me years ago and I haven't posted since 2009. That's me on my soapbox this morning. Thanks for listening.


    1. Tammy, it's completely okay for you to make awareness of this here or on any of our posts.

      Just stay away from Game Show Forum. It's not a good place to be. I used to post there but do not anymore due to the content and mishandling of comments there. I don't know what it is with the regulars there, so just don't give them posts to poke fun at.

      The Game Show Paradise forum is definitely a nice place to discuss game shows, even though GSP and Game Show Forum are not as visited as this site and the former GSN Forums.

      So go to Game Show Paradise (where you can find me under 'GSNNADMIN') and stick around here if you want talk that focuses on game shows and (mostly) no other nonsense.

    2. The only two places I visit for game show news are here and Game Show Newsnet, but when it comes to posting, I only post here. It sounds like the people at that other game show forum are idiots if that's the case.

      Anyways... I have no idea why Game TV acquired Price. Bell can't even get the description right on their receiver guide. It shows "Year: 1972" for every episode on the schedule, even though it's the newest Carey run of TPiR episodes. Game TV also shows older original programming acquired from GSN, like Apolo's Minute to Win It, Skin Wars and Sherri's Newlywed Game, and they used to air Inaba's 1 VS 100 as well. Personally, I don't watch Game TV anymore. Used to only watch it for Monty Hall's Split Second, but it looks like they chose not to renew the lease.

    3. Game Show Forum is run by a bunch of immature monkeys who can't tolerate you if you don't agree with them. That's why I post here.

    4. Thanks guys. It's really good to know I'm not in the minority. If you aren't one of their group of 10 or so, look out. They'll nitpick every word you post and I think it's on purpose so you leave and they'll have their playground to themselves. And w/o mentioning names, the guy w/ the most posts on there(like 5 times as many as the next closest poster) is a real ass. Many of you know who this is. And thanks Scott for the other sites. It's always good to have extra info.

    5. Heck, I may not agree with Casey Abell half the time, but at least he is not like those dumbasses.

    6. Yeah, he's just a heavy-set, pompous jerk, not a complete dumbass. Don't frequent those boards, so don't know if they spout opinions as fact like he does, so I can't comment on that.