Monday, September 21, 2015

Renewal odds 9/21/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction', 'Steampunk'd'

Skin Wars 

Chance of renewal: 100% (flat)


In 46 episodes in its second season (since April 1st), Idiotest has averaged 366,000 total viewers and 117,000 18-49 viewers. Almost all of the higher numbers in that average came from April, May and June. In July, August and September thus far, Idiotest has averaged 321,000 total viewers and 113,000 18-49 viewers (18 episodes).

Take a look at those numbers closely and we can see why Idiotest got renewed (or is definitely casting). From the whole season, Idiotest is a young skewing show for GSN standards with about 1 of 3 viewers aged 18-49 years old. In the second figure, just like the first, Idiotest was somewhat below the recent GSN primetime averages lately while barely down in 18-49 viewers. The 18-49 viewers have held on very well for Idiotest while the total viewers are down. That's partially a good thing: GSN wants the young viewers.

Unless the casting turn out is weak for Idiotest, I think we have at least a 65 half-hour episode third season order.

Chance of renewal: 95% (up 40% from last week)

The Chase

GSN is giving The Chase a big OUCH by putting forth casting for Idiotest yet nothing for The Chase.

Another cause for concern for The Chase from last week's ratings: It put up a very old skewing rerun last Thursday night, which Mark Labbett on Twitter pointed out to us personally that only 10% of viewers were age 18 to 49. That means The Chase is old-skewing and was below the GSN primetime average for 18-49 viewers.

Still, as we have seen from the new episode numbers, The Chase should have no problem floating towards renewal. Just the wait is on and this is what we get from the events that unfolded this past week:

Chance of renewal: 80% (down 15% from last week)

Chain Reaction

The first season of this version of Chain Reaction is officially half over. In twenty half hour episodes (since July 16th), Chain Reaction has averaged 431,000 total viewers and 96,000 18-49 viewers. From those figures alone, Chain Reaction should be mainly safe for renewal.

To analyze those numbers deeper, in its first ten episodes, Chain Reaction averaged 463,000 total viewers and 104,000 18-49 viewers. In the later ten episodes of Chain Reaction (the most recent five weeks), all runs have averaged 399,000 total viewers and 89,000 18-49 viewers. Based on those figures, Chain Reaction may not have a long-term future on GSN with numbers ticking down from the first quarter of the season to the second quarter (and especially the past three weeks).

I truly believe the fate of Chain Reaction relies on how Hellevator performs. If Hellevator blows out the Nielsen doors (Casey Abell phrase, anyone?), then Chain Reaction is a goner. If Hellevator bombs or even starts out strong then goes weak, most likely expect a renewal for Chain Reaction come December or before.

Chance of renewal: 60% (up 5% from last week)


Nothing has changed here. Cannot really drag on the fact that Steampunk'd host Jeannie Mai is not on the GSN personalities banner any longer. Steampunk'd had reruns this past week and we'll see how numbers continue to perform in its new, earlier timeslot. It's still not looking good for Jeannie and crew.

Chance of renewal: 15% (flat)


  1. Sure, Chain Reaction may have dropped its average in its last ten episodes compared to its first ten episodes, but it has done better than Idiotest's average the last couple
    of months. CR did have some competition, like the NFL kickoff game a couple weeks back and the first GOP Debate in August. However despite those big events, CR didn't bomb out. Maybe it needs a hiatus. Do what The Chase did. Take a month or so break and return in November. Or maybe GSN just wants to air the season completely without breaks. I hope it returns for another year, but it's not certain. It's the oldest skewing original they have. Even The Chase is slightly better in the 18-49 demo then the show. Keep in mind, Bible Challenge had average numbers in its third season but still got canceled. I wonder if that show skewed old in the demo. Anyways, CR better hope Hellevator premieres bad or the show is in jeopardy.

    1. "Keep in mind, Bible Challenge had average numbers in its third season but still got canceled."

      After other projects came around and in development for GSN in mid 2013, GSN really didn't want American Bible Challenge around any longer. Just look how long it took for it to get renewed for a third season and to finally get on the air.

      Interesting you mention this, because there will be a story on this in the coming weeks.

    2. True. BC was renewed in August of 2013 and didn't make it on air until May of last year.

  2. Just got the new September 21-28 schedule. Assume you'll be getting it, too. GSN is dumping Man v. Fly. No surprise. I posted on my blog...

    TV Newser says that GSN slumped a bit for the week of September 14-20. Well, the broadcast competition is getting tougher as we go into the fall season. The numbers were still pretty good by the network's historical standards. 367K/279K/394K viewers prime time/total day/extended prime time. GSN ranked 42nd, 31st and 38th in the windows.

    In possibly related news GSN is dumping the Man v. Fly interstitials. They sure weren't helping the prime time ratings.