Monday, September 7, 2015

2015-16 syndicated game show predictions

Family Feud will become the number one syndicated game show
this season, but not number one consistently. Wheel of Fortune
and Family Feud will switch off as number one and two in
varying weeks.
One week from today, new seasons of long running syndicated game shows Jeopardy!, Wheel of Fortune, Who Wants To Be a Millionaire? and Family Feud premiere. Two weeks from today, sophomore syndie Celebrity Name Game premieres. Here is what I see in the near future of all these shows.

Family Feud: Steve Harvey is simply on a roll. The summer rerun numbers for Family Feud have been elevated from the ABC Celebrity version. Year to year, the syndicated household numbers are up more than 30%.

Year to year, the peak for Family Feud has been climbing and continues to climb at a steady rate:
In 2010-11, a 2.5 HH rating (+1.0 from 2009-10, which is approximate).
In 2011-12, a 3.2 HH rating (+0.7 from 2010-11).
In 2012-13, a 5.4 HH rating (+2.2 from 2011-12, thanks to better, double-run timeslots almost everywhere).
In 2013-14, a 6.3 HH rating (+0.9 from 2012-13).
In 2014-15, a 7.2 HH rating (+0.9 from 2013-14).

The climb year to year is steady and there is no sign of decline for Family Feud any day soon. Have you heard too: ABC's Celebrity Family Feud was the number one new show of the summer and the GSN Harvey Feud rerun numbers are huge too, if not growing.

In short, Family Feud will be the number one syndicated game show at some point of the 2015-16 year, but not consistently. Wheel of Fortune will take first too at times as Pat and Steve will battle it out between one and two. Just once, Family Feud will top Judge Judy as the number one syndicated show, but again, I do not believe that will be consistent.

Ratings prediction for Family Feud: This season's high will top out at an 8.0 in the winter months. It will range between a 6.0 and 7.5 from September to December and then a 8.0 down to a 7.0 into late next Spring.

Jeopardy! and Wheel of Fortune: The two least interesting of topic here, in my opinion. I think both will stay afloat, if not tick up a little when it comes to the Household rating.

Ratings predictions for Jeopardy! and Wheel of Fortune will remain flat. At their peaks, I see the same as last year: 7's in the HH rating for Jeopardy! come winter and an 8.0 for Wheel.

Chris Harrison takes on the role of host for the fourteenth
season of Who Wants To Be a Millionaire??
Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?: Quite honestly, I think this will be the last season. Chris Harrison seems like a solid host and the gameplay is nearly back to the original format. I think Millionaire is expensive to produce, has not had that million dollar winner on the regular syndicated version since 2003 and simply, people are getting tired of the show. There is not even that much publicity around this season of Who Wants To Be a Millionaire? like there is with Family Feud.

Ratings prediction: At the start of the Fall, Millionaire will float at 1.6/1.7 like it has this summer then rise to a 1.8/1.9 average throughout the winter. This will not be enough for an additional season. It's too bad, I like Millionaire when I can see it, but the general trend since 2002 has been declining ratings, which the decline has only accelerated since 2013.

Celebrity Name Game: I actually think some bright news will come for Craig Ferguson in his upcoming sophomore season. Although I do not see a Feud-like ratings uptick, I see Celebrity Name Game averaging a 1.4/1.5 as the season goes on. Celebrity Name Game averaged a 1.2/1.3 in its first season.

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  1. Any special gimmicks this year with The Wheel of Fortune?
    They bumped the minimum to 32k last year in honor of 32 years on TV. Will they bump it up to 33K this year?

    How about celebrity Wheel of Fortune or even classic Wheel episodes offered in syndication to those who offer the Saturday run?

    1. Please, no. Just... no. I really hate seeing celebrities playing for charity on game shows. They have more than enough money to donate to the charities themselves, if they wanted to do it. If you want to pair celebrities with regular people who actually need the money, then sure. But strictly just having celebrities playing against other celebrities for charity -- not something I'm interested in watching.

      I also think Millionaire will be gone after this season. Honestly, Chris has got to be one of the busiest hosts in the business right now. Between Bachelor, Bachelorette, Bachelor Pad/Paradise and now Millionaire, he's got to be working year-round non-stop now.... and raking in the cash as well.

    2. The Bachelor franchises are actually much less time consuming to film for Chris Harrison alone then you think.

    3. Although I never watch those shows because they are the stupidest shows on the planet, I know you don't see him that much.

      I think he'll do well. Certainly it won't see a Feud like rise in ratings, but I think it can get back into the 2's. Until then, we have one more week of Terry screaming at us. Jeopardy and Wheel will do fine, seeing how they are still the highest rated shows in syndication and that almost everyone loves them. For Feud, I think it can rise in the 8 digits. If we have a really terrible winter (which it seems like we do every year) and people have nothing to do, it can happen.

      CNG concerns me. As much as I like the show, I fear that it might get canned. In the middle of the first season, the show was heavily downgraded to mornings, afternoons, and even late nights. I think it will have a slight rise, but not much. Let's just hope that this show doesn't fall into the second season curse where as while the first season was strong, the second season completely bombs. This is most common with talk shows.

    4. My biggest worry for Millionaire, which I'm rooting for since it's basically going back to what made it epic, is the amount of stations who are completely dropping it, downgrading it to overnight or transferring it from one of the 4 major nets to CW/MyTV/Ind.. Low rated local stations=low rated shows. It will be hard to pick up steam if viewers can't find you.

    5. I have heard about the shift in Millionaire's timeslots. It's not as major of a change as Family Feud had three years ago right now when it got upgraded and double-runs in a lot of affiliates, but still a change. I don't think the ratings for Millionaire have been that bad that it deserves late night/early morning slots, but I think Millionaire could do well in afternoons like it has been in many areas since 2002. I definitely don't think Millionaire deserves to be dropped completely.

      If Millionaire can pick up viewers even on the low rated stations, you bet it will get better slots again down the road.

    6. In my area, the show currently airs at 8 am and 1:30 pm every day. Starting Monday though, they are doubling it up at now 10 am. I checked, Celebrity Name Game for its new season still remains at 11 am like it has in my area since January. Who knows, if both shows improve, they can get better slots than just early morning or late night.

    7. Those aren't bad slots for either. What networks? I think that 10am double run is actually better for Millionaire than what it had before.

    8. Pittsburgh CW. It's replacing The Queen Latifah Show, which got canceled. Family Feud airs on there as well at 7 and 7:30 pm. It's been on at nighttime since 2011. Celebrity Name Game airs on My Pittsburgh TV, which it is on from 11 am to noon. I think Millionaire can benefit from airing earlier. It has lesser competition.

    9. Special gimmicks? Yeah right.. Wheel is cutting its budget this season, reducing 1/2 Cars to Round 2 and 3, slashing several $900 spaces to $600, and a $800 wedge to $650. And of course, the bonus minimum is now $33,000.. which will likely be hit a lot.

  2. Channel 6 in Philadelphia is airing Millionaire at 1:05 am. It used to be on at 2pm. I think many stations are down-grading it's time slots. And no million dollar winner since 2003? Wow!

    1. Wow John, that's a big downgrade. Terry's year must have really made the numbers disappointing. And yes, no million dollar winner since 2003 on the regular version.

  3. You forgot Monopoly Millionaires Club in syndication. That's my favorite new show!

    1. "You forgot Monopoly Millionaires Club in syndication. That's my favorite new show!"

      True, and I love MMC too. It should have a bright future, considering how quick it got picked up for a second season.