Monday, August 10, 2015

Renewal odds 8/10/15: 'The Chase', 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Chain Reaction'

Last week's renewal odds

The Chase

Something that we all forgot from last Thursday's ratings: The Chase actually hit a season low with 571,000 total viewers. At the same time, The Chase has climbed year to year (as tweeted out). The Chase turned two years old on Thursday, the night that the latest new episode aired. Here are the year to year numbers for The Chase in new runs:

August 6, 2013 (premiere): 9pm 511K total viewers; 10pm: 461K total viewers. Average: 486,000 total viewers.
August 5, 2014 (middle of Season 3) at 8pm: 558K total viewers (up 15% from a year prior)
August 6, 2015 (middle of Season 4) at 8pm: 571K total viewers (up 2% from a year prior)

Another high for The Chase: The Chase was the highest rated GSN original of the week in total viewers, topping Skin Wars, Idiotest and Chain Reaction.

The Chase is going strong. Season low: big deal (sarcasm).

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

Skin Wars

In the first eight episodes this season, Skin Wars has averaged 564,000 total viewers. In the first eight episodes last season (and only eight), Skin Wars averaged 600,000 total viewers. This means Skin Wars is down 6% in total viewers from last season (thus far). This is not really a cause for concern.

Just last week, Skin Wars saw its highest rated episode in both 18-49 and total viewers in four weeks. While Skin Wars last Wednesday had a slightly above average 517,000 total viewers for GSN standards, the 18-49 figure, 241K 18-49 viewers, is nearly triple the GSN primetime average for that demo.

So Skin Wars skews young, probably younger than most Family Feud episodes, and does well in total viewers. Despite a minor slump, Rebecca, RuPaul, Robin and Craig aren't going anywhere.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)


In the end, Idiotest will probably get a third season. But Idiotest, unlike Skin Wars, has been in a legitimate slump the past five weeks. Idiotest by the months this season:

April (10 episodes): 391K total viewer average
May (8 episodes): 363K total viewer average
June (10 episodes): 426K total viewer average
July (8 episodes): 347K total viewer average

All in all, not "bomb out" averages, but last week's numbers were just okay at 10pm and disappointing at 10:30pm. 10pm had a big drop from Skin Wars and 10:30pm was the lowest rated episode of Idiotest in two months.

Three more negatives about Idiotest: Idiotest had a primetime rerun slot pulled last week, is bounced to only weekends come August 17-23 (because of Steampunk'd) and also the fact that GSN is playing around with the Idiotest new run timeslots coming this week with Man Versus Fly. GSN would not mess around with one of their hit originals that are priorities. For example, GSN is not shuffling The Chase or Chain Reaction times, even by a few minutes. Why shuffle Idiotest?

So I don't think Idiotest is a goner, but its ratings don't excite me as much as they did a couple months ago.

Chance of renewal: 70% (down 15%)

Chain Reaction

Not too bad for Chain Reaction last week. It went up against the Republican Debate, not that I am saying that is an excuse for GSN shows to slip. The Chase fell also while Chain Reaction held on pretty well in the 18-49's for the first episode. The second episode for Chain Reaction skewed pretty old and just "average" for the primetime lineup (and GSN doesn't want "average" for their hot new originals, they want great ratings).

I will also take note: Chain Reaction fell harder week to week than The Chase.

All in all, Chain Reaction has some potential for a second season. But you know GSN's track record with revivals the past five years. 

Chance of renewal: 60% (down 5%)


  1. Off topic. According to DirecTV, starting today, both airings of Card Sharks are the Perry version.

    1. According to the advanced schedule for this week, it is still Eubanks at 9am and Perry at 10am ET.

    2. DirecTV has Eubanks Card Sharks at 9am next week, but it also has the same schedule that Zap2it had for prime time (sherriwed, O'Hurley Feud, It Takes a Church, etc.)

    3. Give it time ;) but thanks for watching out.

      Perry and Eubanks Card Sharks both remain the next two weeks.

    4. Darn, I was hoping they would dump that bigot, Eubanks.

  2. ratings depend on when the next black riot in ferguson happens. when the riot happens. ratings go down, especially for negro ff.