Monday, July 27, 2015

Renewal odds 7/27/15: 'The Chase', 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'Chain Reaction'

The Chase 

Without a doubt, The Chase is most likely to be renewed and probably for a twenty episode fifth season. This fourth season thus far (including the January through March run) has averaged 650,000 total viewers, which is 14% higher than the first nine episodes of season three (which averaged 569K total). The two episodes of The Chase this summer (July 16 & 23) are up 32% from the first two episodes of The Chase that aired last summer (July 8 & 15, 2014).

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

Skin Wars 

In its second season thus far (six episodes), Skin Wars has averaged 596,000 total viewers, down 4% from the first six episodes of season 1 (618K average). Even though Skin Wars has had two season lows two weeks in a row, the total viewer figures are still well above the primetime average while the 18-49 numbers make Skin Wars the youngest skewing show on GSN.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)


This gets interesting:

In 34 episodes (all the episodes that have aired thus far this season), Idiotest has averaged 389,000 total viewers and 120,000 18-49 viewers. The total viewer figure is up 5% from the first 34 episodes of last season (18-49's were not all available for season one).

I take into account that Idiotest got renewed for a second season with a 360,000 total viewer average at the time. However, the fact that Idiotest has averaged about 20% below the GSN primetime average these past three weeks is a cause for concern. Good news is, the past two weeks, Idiotest has risen from 10pm to 10:30pm in both 18-49 and total viewers.

Chance of renewal: 90% (down 9%)

Chain Reaction

Chain Reaction did not "crash" in its second week but however suffered a steep drop from premiere and from lead in. My concern for Chain Reaction is the drop from The Chase on 7/23 when The Chase actually rose week to week. It's not like The Chase dropped week to week and brought Chain Reaction down with it.

For primetime standards, the 18-49 numbers on July 23rd (74K at 9pm and 75K at 9:30pm) are actually quite bad for primetime, but however Chain Reaction actually skewed younger than The Chase last Thursday.

Chance of renewal: 50% (down 5%)


  1. Non related, but Celebrity Family Feud closed out with 8.5 million viewers and a 2.0 in the demo. Should be good for a second season. I wonder though if ABC will keep airing the show in reruns until September. The show did end early. Overall, a strong season for them.

    1. there were also no black riots during that time. now that the blacks believe that Bland woman was murdered instead of killing herself they will go back to rioting. if there had been riots then the ratings would have been down.

    2. If you want to spew that disgusting nonsense, go on a racist website and let it all out. And this is a game show site, don't be saying all of that bigoted and racist crap on here.

    3. OK sorry about that dude

    4. Hulk Hogan, is that you??

    5. I think its about 60% game talk and 40% crap. Have you seen the fighting between members, diarea talk and now the racist views? I been watching the view meter and this place is getting hot up in here. I'm thinking double what it was recently for page views.