Monday, July 13, 2015

Renewal odds 7/13/15: 'Skin Wars', 'Idiotest', 'The Chase', 'Chain Reaction'

Skin Wars

So far this season, Skin Wars has averaged 637,000 total viewers and 230,000 18-49 viewers over four episodes, well above the primetime average. Each week since the season premiere has been an improvement over the season premiere (540K total viewers/166K 18-49 viewers on June 10th).

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)


Despite last week's slight slump, there should not be any problems with Idiotest getting a third season. In thirty episodes, Idiotest has averaged 393,000 total viewers and 119,000 18-49 viewers. Although that total viewer number is relatively lower than recent GSN primetime averages, Idiotest is a very cheap show by GSN that helps the network's 18-49 averages too.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

The Chase

New episodes are finally starting this Thursday. Let's see if there is a week to week rise again like previous cycles of The Chase.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

Chain Reaction

For months I have said that Chain Reaction will finally be the first revival GSN has done to get a second season since The Newlywed Game. No one seems to be upset with GSN that they are reviving Chain Reaction and it looks to be a needed revival. The mid-afternoon runs of the Lane version are highly rated week after week. Will viewers of the last GSN revival of Chain Reaction like this new revival, or will they even bother tuning in?

At least GSN has played smart with the mid-2000's version of Chain Reaction. They have kept it in the same 3pm hour for years now where it has done well, while not flooding the schedule with marathons of the former version like they did with Baggage, Pyramid (multiple versions), Lingo, etc. The 2000's version of Chain Reaction is not over-saturated and if anything, could have been shown more the past few years (another weekend rerun, or something like that).

Chain Reaction does have a great lead-in, probably the best lead-in it could have (next to Skin Wars), The Chase. However, there has been no press coverage of the new Chain Reaction. Shows like Skin Wars, American Bible Challenge, It Takes a Church and The Chase have received much more coverage around the internet than Chain Reaction. Chain Reaction has received around the level of buzz Lie Detectors had, although Chain Reaction is definitely the better show.

Based on the mix of the afternoon reruns still doing well + no buzz + lead-in:

Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 55%


  1. Why did GSN move Idiotest to 10pm? I liked it better at 8pm. I thought they moved shows to late night to kill them.

    1. Idiotest was moved to get better numbers after Skin Wars, which has worked.

    2. How about Skin Wars at 8 and Idiotest at 9? I thought the usual "prime time" block is 8-10, not 9-11.

    3. I think Skin Wars and Idiotest work better from 9-11 since it is summer and shows in the 8pm hour perform weaker in the summer months with nicer weather, etc.

      The Chase is given a try in the 8pm hour starting tomorrow, but it did well there last summer. Plus, 8pm is considered more of a "family hour" where Skin Wars is not so family.

  2. Again, where do you gets these numbers?
    Are you pulling them out of your arse?
    How could something not even air yet and you give it a 55% renewal rate?