Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Will 'Skin Wars' follow in the direction of 'The Chase' or 'American Bible Challenge'?

A new episode of Skin Wars airs tomorrow night (Wednesday) on Game Show Network at 9pm ET. Last week's premiere was visibly down from last season's premiere and just a few thousand viewers down from the Season 1 finale with 540,000 total viewers and 166,000 18-49 viewers.

We have seen originals take two different paths when it comes to ratings for second and third seasons. The Chase started out moderately in its first season, with 511,000 total viewers at the premiere. The Season 2 premiere fell to 453,000 total viewers; the last five episodes of Season 2 averaged 730,000 total viewers and peaked at 827,000 total viewers for a new episode.

American Bible Challenge debuted to 1.73 million for its series premiere then fell off throughout the remainder of the first season (never hitting one million viewers again in its first season). The Season 2 premiere delivered 1.152 million viewers and the highest episode for Season 3, the final season, was 636,000 total viewers.

Skin Wars started out very strong in its first season with the first four episodes averaging 667,000 total viewers. The last four episodes of Skin Wars from the first season averaged 533,000 total viewers.

From here, where will Skin Wars fall? Will Skin Wars rise like The Chase did or will it have a downward trend like American Bible Challenge?

My prediction: Skin Wars will go the route of American Bible Challenge. Skin Wars is formatted more like American Bible Challenge than The Chase. The Chase never had a nine-month long hiatus like Skin Wars has had. Any hiatus The Chase has had, GSN has kept reruns of The Chase on the schedule.

Skin Wars is like American Bible Challenge in the sense that GSN gives long breaks between seasons. Neither Skin Wars or American Bible Challenge has stayed on the schedule during their breaks.

Skin Wars will remain stable in the coming weeks and stick around 500,000 total viewers for its finale. I don't see Skin Wars having the continuous week-to-week rise, or even an upward trend like The Chase has had.

Ratings prediction for tomorrow night for Skin Wars at 9pm: 527,000 total viewers, 168,000 18-49 viewers.

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