Monday, May 4, 2015

Renewal odds 5/4/15: 'The Chase', 'Idiotest', 'It Takes a Church', 'Baggage On The Road', 'Lie Detectors'

Switching the order up starting this week; now going from most likely to be renewed at the top to least likely at the bottom.

The Chase  

No changes.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)


In its latest week, its fifth week of the season, Idiotest hit season highs in both 18-49 and total viewers. Both new episodes scored season highs in total viewers (506K and 533K) and one 18-49 season high (176K) while the other 18-49 figure (157K) was a timeslot high for this season thus far. According to the available 18-49 figures for Idiotest from season one, last week's Idiotest at 8:30pm had a series high in 18-49 viewers.

In its second season thus far (five weeks, ten episodes), Idiotest has averaged 391,000 total viewers and 130,000 18-49 viewers (the 18-49 number is tied/higher than The Chase Season 4 thus far).

In the end, it's great news that Idiotest rose from half-hour to half-hour in 18-49 and total viewers, despite a moderate decrease from lead-in Family Feud.

Chance of renewal: 85% (up 10% from last week)

It Takes a Church 

Last week, It Takes a Church hit a series low, by far, in both 18-49 and total viewers. The total viewer figure, 181K total viewers, is one of the lowest numbers I have ever seen in GSN primetime. In its second season thus far, It Takes a Church has averaged 290,000 total viewers and has declined severely the past two weeks. It Takes a Church has also received viewership below 300,000 total viewers the past three of four weeks. Also, in the past six episodes, It Takes a Church has averaged 66,000 18-49 viewers and has never risen above 100K 18-49 viewers, a figure that is considered good for new GSN primetime originals.

It Takes a Church has two weeks left on the schedule and after that, definitely looks to be a goner.

Chance of renewal: 10% (down 15% from last week)

Baggage On The Road  

No changes, same bad timeslot-2am on latenight Fridays. No news anywhere-a sign of GSN cancellation.

Chance of renewal: 5% (flat)

Lie Detectors  

Even though Lie Detectors hit a season high this week, it dropped drastically after a new hour of Idiotest and its rerun at 9:30pm did awful for primetime standards (183K total viewers; 72K 18-49 viewers at 9:30pm on 4/29). Still awful numbers and I doubt there will be an upward trend from here on out. Plus, the numbers during premiere week were so awful Lie Detectors should be sold for cancellation now.

Chance of renewal: 1% (flat)


  1. Just posted the new pdf for May 18-24 at Game Show Follies. It Takes a Church is gone.

    1. So It Takes a Church has been replaced with Idiotest on Thursday nights at 8pm and 11pm (and The Newlywed Game on Saturday afternoon).

      Looks like GSN really likes Idiotest, especially in primetime.

      Lie Detectors still sticks around after Idiotest on Wednesday; despite drops last week.

    2. Well, Idiotest attracts the 18-49s and total viewers, so no surprise that it got additional airings. Looks like next Thursday might the series finale of ITAC, the way the ratings have been lately.

  2. You can do these posts all you want, but I think it's obvious that of these shows, 2 of them will get renewed and 3 of them will not.

    1. I like doing the weekly renewal odds posts based on the prior week's ratings and news. But it is quite obvious The Chase and Idiotest are safe while everything else is a goner.

  3. Ugh, I'm still seriously not happy with Idiotest