Monday, April 20, 2015

Renewal odds 4/20/15: 'The Chase', 'Baggage On The Road', 'It Takes a Church', 'Idiotest, 'Lie Detectors'

Last week's renewal odds

The Chase

Nothing has changed. Why would it?

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

Baggage On The Road

More and more news comes for the decline of Baggage On The Road. First, a lot of us thought Baggage On The Road was doomed after its week 2 performance (on January 14th) and moved to a later timeslot (also known as the "Mind of a Man" treatment). Then, it was make or break when GSN advertised Baggage On The Road at its upfronts with mentions about the show in press releases and the visibility of Jerry Springer at the event. Baggage On The Road did not live up to its finale expectations. Then, Baggage On The Road fell well below the GSN primetime average in its first week of reruns. In this week's news, the most gloomy news of all for Jerry, Baggage On The Road has been ejected from its Wednesday night reruns slot and only remains in a lonely Friday 2am slot. There's almost no way this could be coming back for more episodes. Baggage On The Road is basically dead.

Chance of renewal: 15% (down 20% from last week)

It Takes a Church

On April 2nd, It Takes a Church had 354,000 total viewers and 97,000 18-49 viewers. On April 16th, It Takes a Church had 351,000 total viewers and 95,000 18-49 viewers. In these two weeks, It Takes a Church had virtually the same audience. The third week of It Takes a Church saw a series low. It Takes a Church has also had a rerun pulled. The four weeks of It Takes a Church thus far have averaged 337,000 total viewers and 80,000 18-49 viewers (compared to 368K total viewers from the 8-episode first season). Still not too confident in It Takes a Church getting a third season; the next four episodes of this coming season would have to perk up for GSN to consider more episodes

Chance of renewal: 35% (flat)


Idiotest had a fantastic week this past week. A season high in total viewers for both episodes and impressive 18-49 numbers (though not the highest of the season). Idiotest declined half-hour to half-hour in both viewership figures, but not a big enough decline to worry about. The past three weeks, Idiotest has averaged 393,000 total viewers and 140,000 18-49 viewers with no specific downward trend. Therefore, with that information and the April 15th numbers, it's looking great for renewal.

Chance of renewal: 75% (up 5% from last week)

Lie Detectors

This is interesting. It appears Lie Detectors was produced and filmed but did not have a network to air it on. So GSN put it in their upfronts and six days later, it got a premiere date. In other words, it wasn't GSN's idea or show in the first place.

We really don't know what Lie Detectors is besides the 15-second previews on GSN and YouTube. The premiere alone and maybe some episodes later this week will garner big numbers, just because people (like myself) will check it out. The real factor for more episodes to be ordered or not is if one, viewers stick around for weeks to come; two, if it performs better than Family Feud which usually receives 400K+ total viewers in the new Lie Detectors timeslot; three, if the post-Idiotest reruns (starting Wednesday 4/29) retains enough of the Idiotest numbers.

It doesn't even appear GSN has confidence in Lie Detectors in the first place, putting it in a non-primetime spot. The "early evening timeslot" (at least in ET and CT timezones but really mid-afternoon in the West) is where The Newlywed Game, Baggage and Catch 21 all had success-but that was already five, plus years ago. Recently, all originals that have had success aired in primetime (and GSN only tried The Pyramid in the evening slots).

It's also too bad this is April and not, say winter when the weather is bad, it snows and people are forced to stay in their homes more. It's also after Daylight Savings Time. When Lie Detectors airs in new runs, it's daytime everywhere in the United States (although I will note Steve Harvey Feud does very fine business, after Daylight Savings, in the 6-8pm ET slots weekdays, and there really is not a big difference between the week of April 6th and the week of April 20th in television viewing patterns). We'll see if Lie Detectors can hold on and rise up to high expectations.

Chance of renewal (for Season 2): 45%

1 comment:

  1. I'll check out Lie Detectors tonight because it doesn't look that bad. Sure the comics on there maybe be no namers, but it's still worth watching at least one episode. I think GSN wants this show to do well if they are sandwiching the show inbetween Harvey Feud episodes.