Monday, March 23, 2015

Renewal odds 3/23/15: 'The Chase', 'Baggage On The Road', 'It Takes a Church'

Last week's renewal odds

The Chase

Nothing has changed much. The first seven episodes of season 4 (aired January 27-March 10) are higher rated than any season-long stretch ever in the history of The Chase. The rerun of The Chase held up pretty well last week too.

Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)

Baggage On The Road

Ratings started out iffy, got better throughout the weeks over the series run, and then ended below the norm on 3/11. Reruns were not that good on 3/18, the first week of reruns for Jerry. Anyway, besides some late night shifts (due to Let's Ask America leaving the schedule), Baggage On The Road remains in all given slots, for now.

Chance of renewal: 45% (down 5% from last week)

It Takes A Church

This is rather interesting. The fact that It Takes a Church got a second season is a little remarkable. For one, GSN knew American Bible Challenge, the show that was suppose to coincide with It Takes a Church, was on its way out. Second, the fact that the second half of the inaugural season of It Takes a Church averaged lower than the first half (401K for the first four episodes versus 335K for the last four episodes) was a sign (at the time) that it was on its way out and we would never see it again, similar to Beat the Chefs and Family Trade.

GSN has been heavily promoting the new season of It Takes a Church, typically between 2 and 3 times per episode of Family Feud during Sunday night. The timeslot for new runs is sandwiched between two hours of Steve Harvey's Family Feud as both lead-in and lead-out on Thursdays. Its two weekend reruns are in very exposed slots: After The Newlywed Game on Saturday afternoons (female demos) and between more hours of Steve Harvey's Family Feud in the middle of Sunday primetime.

I really think GSN execs want to see It Takes a Church get great numbers and impressive demos. We'll see what happens when the ratings come out Friday.

Chance of renewal (for Season 3): 60%


  1. Actually it would be hard for a GSN show to not have either a Feud lead in or lead out.

    1. Funny that you say that. New runs of Skin Wars never had a Family Feud lead-in.

    2. Really?? My comment was kind of tongue in cheek, but I was half serious. Looking at the schedule and aside from the daytime hours, almost every show has either a lead out or line in w/ Feud.

  2. When do you think these renewals will happen?

    1. The Chase: Probably an episode or two after it returns from hiatus. GSN execs will get to see how good the numbers are for The Chase again, just at a different time of year (and see if they are up from last summer) to decide how many episodes for season 5.

      Baggage On The Road: Whenever The Chase gets renewed. If The Chase gets renewed and BOTR doesn't, it looks real bleak for Jerry. Plus, twenty episodes really is not enough for a rerun cycle.

      It Takes a Church: If there is a renewal, after the conclusion of the second season (which should be in May)

      I see GSN wanting to renew all three shows at once, or at least two at once, but we'll see. Networks like renewing multiple shows at once, if they have shows that are renewable and the time is right.

    2. Ok if the Chase is renewed before the end of August, I pay you $10. If not, you pay me $990. Deal?

    3. Since he's not around I'll agree for him in his absence. I'm the witness so post if someone gets screwed out of their money.