The first seven episodes of the most recent run of The Chase (Season 4) averaged a spectacular 642,000 total viewers. The lowest rated episode of the seven episode stretch, 598K viewers, is still higher than the Season 1, 2 and 3 averages. Even though there was no renewal at the upfront for The Chase, or any other GSN show, no doubt another season will be ordered sometime later this year.
Chance of renewal: 99% (flat)
Baggage On The Road
Over twenty episodes, a 370K viewer average is really not bad and should be considered for renewal. Over time, with the exception of finale week, Baggage On The Road trended upward in total viewers and had a very strong week (3/4) with 18-49 viewers. The possibility for more episodes is relatively optimistic given the most recent and final week of ratings for Baggage On The Road (3/11) fell 15% in total viewers from new episode 1 to new episode 2 but rose 2% in 18-49 viewers from new episode 1 to new episode 2. Both 18-49 and total viewer figures were just good and nothing fantastic, but the fact that the 18-49 viewers remained is crucial and cable likes 18-49's a lot in general.
In last week's post, I had said the chance of Baggage On The Road getting another season would be very slim (down to 15%) if it did not get renewed at the upfronts. The renewal odd for Baggage On The Road would be real ominous if The Chase got renewed and Baggage On The Road didn't at last week's upfronts. No renewal for The Chase means Jerry still has a chance.
Chance of renewal: 50% (flat)
Renewal odds for It Takes a Church Season 3 begin next week (3/23), before the premiere. The second season of It Takes a Church premieres Thursday, March 26th.