These renewal odds are based on the ratings for The Chase and Baggage On The Road from 2/17 and 2/18, respectively.
The Chase has been very steady the past two weeks and this latest season, averaging 665,000 viewers over the past four episodes. With fair 18-49 numbers, a 0.13 last week in the demo, there's no reason for The Chase not to get a fifth season.
Chance of renewal (for Season 5): 99% (flat)
Baggage On The Road
Jerry's 2015 Baggage revival has performed up to the average GSN primetime number, if not better, over the past four of five weeks (ever since BOTR moved to the 10pm slot). Last Wednesday, for the second week in a row, the hour of Baggage On The Road itself rose from the prior week. In seven weeks (fourteen episodes), Baggage On The Road has averaged 374,000 total viewers. That number looks good on paper, but you have to factor in all the weeks where Baggage On The Road has dropped notably from half-hour to half-hour (2/18 was so slight at 7%, does not count) and all the times new runs of BOTR have fallen from its lead-in (2/18 was also slight at 3%, does not count). Also note GSN yanked two hours of BOTR reruns off the schedule, starting this Saturday.
Chance of renewal: 40% (up 10% from last week)