Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Renewal Odds #8: 'The Chase', 'Baggage On The Road'

These renewal odds are based on the ratings for The Chase and Baggage On The Road from 2/17 and 2/18, respectively.

The Chase 

The Chase has been very steady the past two weeks and this latest season, averaging 665,000 viewers over the past four episodes. With fair 18-49 numbers, a 0.13 last week in the demo, there's no reason for The Chase not to get a fifth season.

Chance of renewal (for Season 5): 99% (flat)

Baggage On The Road 

Jerry's 2015 Baggage revival has performed up to the average GSN primetime number, if not better, over the past four of five weeks (ever since BOTR moved to the 10pm slot). Last Wednesday, for the second week in a row, the hour of Baggage On The Road itself rose from the prior week. In seven weeks (fourteen episodes),  Baggage On The Road has averaged 374,000 total viewers. That number looks good on paper, but you have to factor in all the weeks where Baggage On The Road has dropped notably from half-hour to half-hour (2/18 was so slight at 7%, does not count) and all the times new runs of BOTR have fallen from its lead-in (2/18 was also slight at 3%, does not count). Also note GSN yanked two hours of BOTR reruns off the schedule, starting this Saturday.

Chance of renewal: 40% (up 10% from last week)


  1. Still think it's 99-1? I will still take that bet. They are changing the time period for the Monopoly show. Why would they do that if the show was so popular? Even GSN isn't that stupid. 99-1 looks like the best bet in the world.

    1. In both Seasons 2 and 3, The Chase got a mid-season hiatus. The hiatus for Season2 was two weeks long and the season 3 hiatus was 2+ months long.

    2. OK. So let's make the bet. 99-1. For the record, I think you'll win, but it's probably about 60-40.

  2. Oh, come on! Let's have The Chase renewed for a fifth season.