Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Schedule odds (Daytime and Primetime)

Here's something I would like to experiment with. Yes, the GSN Schedule can be very unpredictable but based on ratings courtesy of SonoftheBronx, here are my latest predictions for what chance a specific spot on the schedule has for remaining in that slot. This is sort of like a renewal/cancellation prediction which can be seen on Zap2It. In other words, slow news day.

8:00am Match Game: 79%*
8:30am Match Game: 86%*
9:00am Super Password: 72%
9:30am Press Your Luck: 93%*
10:00am Sale of the Century: 99%*
10:30am $25,000 Pyramid: 68%
11:00am Super Password: 23%
11:30am $100,000 Pyramid: 22%
12:00pm: Family Feud (Karn): 16%
12:30pm: Family Feud (Karn): 44%
1:00pm Family Feud (O'Hurley): 45%
1:30pm Family Feud (O'Hurley): 59%
2:00pm Catch 21: 75%
2:30pm The Pyramid: 91%*
3:00pm Chain Reaction: 93%
3:30pm Chain Reaction: 97%
4:00pm: Family Feud (Karn): 23%
4:30pm: Family Feud (Karn): 31%
5:00pm Family Feud (O'Hurley): 12%
5:30pm Family Feud (O'Hurley): 21%
6:00pm Family Feud (Harvey): 89%
6:30pm Family Feud (Harvey): 89%

Monday Family Feud (Karn/O'Hurley): 57%
Tuesday Minute to Win It (Ohno)/The Chase/Harvey Feud): 0%/0%/98% (The Chase moving to 8pm November 5th)
Wednesday Family Feud (Harvey): 99%
Thursday Newlywed Game/Family Feud (Harvey): 81%/82%
Friday Baggage: [Currently unknown]
Saturday Minute to Win It (Ohno)/Family Feud (Harvey): 11%/85%
Sunday Minute to Win It (Ohno): 30%

*: May improve to better time slot, more slots or double-run

Calculated by ratings over past five weeks (August 25-September 29) versus daytime average and lead-ins/lead-outs, rise/fall over extended time and previous shows in that time slot. All Times Eastern.


  1. Classics seem to be doing well, but I think Super Password will lose its 11am slot eventually, possibly replaced by Password Plus or a new classic acquisition. Same thing for 100k Pyramid at 11:30am, though I've always wondered how Donny's Pyramid would do there.

    Karn and O'Hurley probably won't last long in their weak time slots, I could see either Lingo making a schedule return or something new get acquired like 5th Grader, Millionaire, Cash Cab, or a new classic (for the noon hour).

    Baggage will probably be taken out eventually (despite you not having a percentage for it), possibly the same thing I suggested for the late afternoon slots.

    Minute on weekends will be gone soon, probably by either The Chase or the same thing I suggested for weekday afternoons and Friday nights, though I'd love to see Wheel of Fortune on Sunday nights.

  2. Baggage does not have a percent yet since we have yet to see ratings for the full four-hour block.

    Still, I do see SP leaving but staying at 9am, 12-2pm episodes of Feud getting reduced but not completely gone and MTWI heavily reduced, which should have happened a while ago. GSN can't be too happy with Apolo's numbers.