Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Another year, another upfront: The ups and downs

Earlier I did express the 2013-14 upfronts in small detail but it's time for a crucial opinion on them.

Minute to Win It
Chance of seeing light of day: Positive. Premieres June 25th, 8pm
Confidence level: High.
Prediction: It could succeed, but I don't see too many shows approaching the million mark or close to it like Bible does. If the show averages 500K for new episodes, that's great, because the production of this is costly. One of their most expensive originals yet. Still, Ohno may hold the show back if his critics are right.

The Chase
Chance of seeing light of day: Positive
Confidence level: Very High.
Prediction: You'll have a dumb contestant or two, but GSN will almost do as well as a job for casting as they  did with Bible. They may not travel from city to city, but I have a feeling a test will be given like with Jeopardy! and Millionaire. The fact that they're ordering 8-10 episodes is smart. This is a very fun and exciting quizzer (just like Bible), new to America (just like Bible), and will attract an outside-of-GSN audience (just like Bible)

Dance Rivals
Chance of seeing light of day: Neutral
Confidence level: Extremely low
Prediction: Big bomb. Reality doesn't work, and this is reality. Dancing with the Stars didn't work, and this is Dancing. I could see them trying this if the DWTS reruns did work, but they didn't. This could actually do worse than Family Trade.

It Takes a Church
Chance of seeing light of day: Below Neutral
Confidence Level: Low
Prediction: No this isn't a religion channel, yet. I don't see them tying the success of American Bible Challenge and Baggage into this. It skews reality. It's dating, but it's not a dating game show like The Dating Game. If it sees the light of day, it will see the cable graveyard along with Dance Rivals and Mr. Stone.

Mind of a Man
Chance of seeing light of day: Above neutral
Confidence level: High
Prediction: "We surveyed 100 men" Familiar? Women win money, the show is funny, and there's a celebrity panel. All we need is a good host to make my confidence level very high, and a long-lasting hit.

The Impostor
Chance of seeing light of day: Positive
Confidence level: Medium
Prediction: It's not traditional, or close to it. It's something new, but almost weird. It may work temporarily, but it won't be an overnight, everlasting hit.

What Have You Been All My Life
Chance of seeing light of day: Well above neutral, almost positive
Confidence level: Medium-High
Prediction: It's kind-of 'Baggage2'. Sure, Baggage worked for two years and this could too. Burns will probably carry the show well. I had no confidence in Baggage, and it became a hit. I have some confidence in this, but by the description it should like The Dating Game. This could actually last more than one season, as long as the production is as good or better than Baggage.

You Don't Know What You're Missing
Chance of seeing light of day: Neutral
Confidence level: Low-Medium
Prediction: Another non-traditional, non-studio based game show. It just looks like families searching around their house for missing objects. Simply, I don't get it.

I do hope all these shows work for them. We've had a string of bad ones starting with Unstapled, then heading towards 1 vs 100, Lingo, Improv, Love Triangle, Beat the Chefs and up to The Pyramid. We need something like Catch 21, Lingo, Russian Roulette, and Poker (a non-traditional, but a hit). We have eight new shows. 4 studio based. 3 dating. 1 pure quizzer. 1 pure reality. I'm excited.

Thoughts? Arguments? Anything?

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